Rotisserie Fantasy Baseball 101: Tips, Tricks, & Tactics
AN INTRODUCTION
Hello, there! Yes, you. Are you tired of placing last in your fantasy league year after year? Or maybe you always place second or third, but can never quite take home the gold? You’re tired of your league never considering you a challenge, and now you’re finally ready to take the most important virtual game known to man seriously? Well, then, you’ve come to the right place. Welcome to Zander’s Guide to Rotisserie Fantasy Baseball: Tips, Tricks & Tactics!
In this guide, I attempt to cover some of the basics with some more advanced stats and metrics thrown in. This serves as an introduction to the life of a fantasy baseballer, and no matter your experience level – whether you’re a newbie, intermediate, or expert, there’s something in here for everyone. By the time next season rolls around, you’ll be ready to become a fantasy champion!
FAQ
Q: Who are you to be giving me fantasy baseball advice?
A: Good question. Well, first off, I think if you’re truly serious about this (as you should be), you shouldn’t just listen to me. My word is not law. After this, you should consult multiple fantasy “experts” (Fantasy “experts” are people who dedicate their lives to the craft of winning this prestigious trophy, and like Apple “Geniuses,” simply believe they know what they’re talking about. It’s all pretty arbitrary and not too hard to figure out if you’re willing to put some time in). I’m just a baseball nerd who thinks I know what it takes to win.
Q: Okay, so what do you have to offer?
A: The strategies and winning ways I lay out for you here are based on information and experience I have accumulated and refined over the past six years. I usually play in only one league a season, although I have played up to three in a single year, all in different formats and sites (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo!). If you think three leagues are a lot, some people play in 10 different leagues – and they change the rules in each one just for fun! For this guide, I will be using ESPN leagues for examples and procedures, although most, if not all rules, apply to all leagues. I will also be assuming your league is comprised of ten members, so if your league is less or more than ten, I guess this guide isn’t for you (just kidding, I’m sure you can handle substituting appropriately).
Q: Do you win?
A: Ah, the money question. I’m glad you asked. Over my six years of fantasy baseballing, I have played a total of ten times over three leagues. I have won five times, and placed in the top three seven times. My track record is a great source of pride that no one will ever be able to strip away from me ever, because fantasy baseball is one of the most important things life offers.
Q: Whoa, that last statement is a little dramatic. Are you like a diehard fan or something?
A: Yes.
Q: Go figure. So, what’s included in this guide?
A: Each section below is aptly named, but among the topics are draft strategies and tips, different types of leagues, using the waiver wire/picking up players, and creating the best fantasy baseball team name, another outlet to display your creativity.
Q: Who’s your favorite team?
A: My own, because I spend hours and years of following to draft the perfect team every year. Oh, also, go Red Sox!
PICKING YOUR LEAGUE | FORMAT | DRAFT
This section is pretty standard protocol. Odds are if you’re in a league with friends, you have already determined these facets of your league. Firstly, there are many sites you can use to play. ESPN is my favorite – it’s the most universal, accessible, and user-friendly. Other sites like CBS and Yahoo! have busy layouts and annoying user bugs (and who has a Yahoo! account anymore?).
Once you choose your site, you can choose a format. There are two main categories for your fantasy format: rotisserie (roto) and points. As previously stated, this guide will only cover rotisserie. I have never played in a points league, and therefore, personally disqualify myself from giving any advice on the matter. If interested, http://games.espn.com/flb/resources/help/content?name=scoring-formats gives you a small description on every format on ESPN, so knock yourself out.
Oh, shoot. Hey. Hello? Oh, phew. Glad you’re back up. Didn’t mean literally. I’ll be more specific from now on.
ROTISSERIE - SEASON
Rotisserie, Season is the traditional, old school format. In roto leagues, you designate a number of categories to compete with against your league for the entire year. Most leagues compete with ten categories. The ten most common are in hitting - batting average (BA), runs (R), home runs (HR), runs batted in (RBI), stolen bases (SB) - and in pitching - earned run average (ERA), walks/hits allowed per inning (WHIP), wins (W), saves (SV), and strikeouts (K).
Cumulatively, ff at the end of the year your team has hit the most home runs, you earn 10 points. If you hit the second most home runs, you earn 9 points. Third most, 8 points, etc. If you’re last in a category, you only get one point.
Scoring works this way for all ten categories, so there are 100 possible points to earn. Scoring example! Let’s say you finish first in home runs (10 points), fourth in batting average (7 points), and third in RBI (8 points), you would have 25 points out of 30 possible points so far.
Pros: Rewards the most balanced, all around team throughout the entire season.
Cons: Final standings are decided rather quickly, making the league not as competitive near the end of the season. What this means is by the All-Star break (midpoint of the season), teams in the bottom half of the standings are very unlikely to finish first, as it’s simply too much ground to cover and too much of a deficit to overcome. Whereas in head-to-head, which I’ll cover next, the trophy is up for grabs in the playoffs!
ROTISSERIE - Head to Head (H2H)
Roto, head-to-head in fantasy sports is a format that rises in popularity every year. It works the same as season roto, but in head-to-head, you compare your stats to only one member of the league one week at a time, comparing the ten categories (you’re facing them head-to-head).
If you are stronger in more categories than your opponent at the end of the week, you get a win, or as the experienced players say, a dub (W). The season then goes by week to week, where you compile a record through the season. For example, if there’s 20 weeks in the fantasy season, your final record could be 15-5, 8-12, or 10-9-1, in the rare case of a tie.
Head-to-head also has another exciting element for fantasy baseball and sports – playoffs. Because scoring goes week by week, the last month or so is dedicated to playoffs, where you enter a bracket based on your record, and despite having the best record, your team still must prove it’s the best for the home stretch.
Pros: Some find it more fun facing off against friends head-to-head (i.e. bragging rights, pride). It keeps the competitive factor up late into the season, more than season roto.
Cons: A little more luck and strategy is involved. (i.e. One week, you could have a stronger team, but your opponent’s team just has an unbeatable week. The next week, your team can play poorly against another bad team. Suddenly, despite having the stronger team on paper, you’re 0-2 when you could be winning if you were playing season roto.)
Neutral: Head-to-head requires more attention, following daily news, and lineup maneuvering. This is a pro or con depending on how much time you’re willing to dedicate!
DRAFT STRATEGIES
Once you have your format and rules set, the most exciting part of the season comes next: the fantasy draft. There are usually 25 rounds in a draft – 25 picks. So, of course, the big question is: How do you draft a winning team? Over the years, I have used a draft strategy that is constantly being refined – some years it works, others I’m not as lucky. But heading into a draft, here’s my most important rules and things to remember, in no particular order.
- Hitting, hitting, hitting. The first few rounds of the draft go by quickly, because there’s usually a strong consensus on the top players. Draft the dependable, premium hitting. Gather up players needed for batting average, home runs, RBIs, etc. Why hitting first? Pitching across baseball has vastly improved over the last couple decades. Strikeouts are going up through the roof. In 2015, 18 pitchers reached 200 strikeouts for the season, the most in history. What does this mean? You can wait until at least round 9 or 10 to draft a pitcher. Pitchers are unpredictable and injury prone. Over 30 major league teams, there are 150 employed starting pitchers. That is a lot of depth you can find later in your draft and the waiver wire.
- Don’t draft players on impulse, but go with your gut. There will be some players you just have a good feeling about: you’re expecting a breakout season, they play for your favorite team, they’re underrated. Go with your gut. If you don’t draft players you want, you’ll lose interest in your team as the season goes on. Just don’t draft Yankees.
- Don’t draft premier closers. These are the Aroldis Chapmans, Wade Davis’, and Kenley Jansens. My favorite fantasy writer has a famous saying, and that saying is, “SAGNOF!”, which stands for “Saves Ain’t Got No Face.” This means that you don’t need a big name closer to get saves. There are 30 employed closers at the beginning of every season. In the first month, at least ten of them lose their job. It’s a closer-pocalypse. However, it’s your job to pay attention and grab them off the waiver wire when new relievers are named the closer of their respective teams. This requires more research and time than some prefer. Also remember closers are pitchers, meaning they’re unpredictable. One of 2016’s best fantasy closers, Baltimore Oriole Zach Britton, injured himself a week into 2017, came back after a quick stint on the disabled list (DL), reinjured himself, and now looks to be out for at least a few months. So remember, preach patience, cause SAGNOF!
- Just like closers, wait to draft your catcher. On ESPN’s Player Rater [1], the top offensive catcher last season (2016) was Jonathan Lucroy, who was the 115th best overall fantasy player. In other words, you can wait until round 11 before even thinking about drafting a catcher. In fact, there were only four catchers total in the top 200 last year (this equates to round 20). Why are catchers so low? Most sit out a fifth of their games, and they focus more on defense than offense. Odds are you can pick up a different catcher every week and be just fine. I like to call this the catcher carousel. For example, this year, 2017, for my catching slot I drafted Toronto’s Russell Martin who started the season 0-18. Then, I picked up Met Travis D’Arnaud, who promptly got injured. Then Padre Austin Hedges, who stopped hitting as soon as I picked him up. Now I own Dodger Yasmani Grandal, who I’ll stick with a bit longer, because he’s personally one of my favorite players. All of this to say catchers stink at hitting so you might as well own players you like!
- Know your sleepers and busts heading into your draft. You want to know as much as you can heading into the draft, so when you see a player, you know already whether you want/plan to draft him. I’ll go over identifying sleepers and busts later.
CREATING THE PERFECT FANTASY TEAM NAME
Your fantasy draft is over. Great! Now, it’s time to come up with the perfect team name – funny, clever, succinct. Some people stick with one team name their entire fantasy careers. Some of my friend’s team names are “Super Rookie!” or “Hakuna Machado” every single year. Other people, myself included, change their name every year based on the team they draft. My favorite method of naming my fantasy teams is using wordplay with one of two of my players.
Take a look at your roster – first names, last names, baseball team names. Do any puns or creative epiphanies pop out to you? On my fantasy basketball team this past season, I owned Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (pronounced go-bear). My team name was “The Gobert Report.” On my fantasy baseball team last season, I owned Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts. My team name was “Zander Bogaerts.” So, play with it year by year, and name it something you love! Mix and match names, different puns, check out some fantasy team generators (where you can plug in your roster and it spits out a bunch of different options). Some of the more popular ones you’ll find on other sites include, “Miggy, Miggy, Miggy, Can’t You See” (Miguel Cabrera), “Carry on my Heyward Son” (Jason Heyward), and The Bryce is Right (Bryce Harper). Keep playing around and trying new things and you’ll find one you’ll love soon enough!
USING THE WAIVER WIRE / PICKING UP FREE AGENTS
Now your team and team name is all set! Great job! Now, of course, this won’t be your team all season. Injuries happen; players lose their jobs; players underperform; trades occur. So, what do you do? You turn to your free agent wire. Many people win their leagues because of their player pickups during the season. So how do you know who to pick up? In a season roto, you want players that you think will accumulate the best numbers over the course of the season. In H2H roto, you can pick up players that are just hot (this is why H2H requires more daily attention, and perhaps more luck).
When I’m browsing the free agent pool, I have one word in mind: potential. How much potential does this player have? For example, take Seattle Mariner third basemen Kyle Seager. Since 2012, Seager has averaged 25 homers and 85 RBI with a .266 batting average, with no outlier seasons. In other words, Seager is about as safe a pick as you can get. You know you’re getting 25 homers and 85 RBI with an average around .260. While you’re safe in betting on those numbers, you also know you won’t be getting any better than those numbers. Safe players are good – they anchor your team. But championship teams are comprised of safe and risky players, i.e. the high potential players.
LOOKING AT HITTERS - IDENTIFYING SLEEPERS & BUSTS
the following applies to players on your free agent wire and to identifying sleepers for your draft.
When looking at hitters, these are the things I pay most attention to, in no particular order:
On Base Percentage (OBP) - A hitter’s OBP is important because it tells you how many chances the player is giving himself. The more you’re on base, the more chances you have at stealing bases, scoring runs, and having a high batting average. For example, as of writing this (May 15, 2017), Bryce Harper leads the league in OBP at .500, which explains why he also leads the league in runs scored.
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) – This statistic is very useful in determining a player’s luck. What this stat tells you is a player’s batting average when he puts the ball in play. This excludes every time he strikes out or walks. So, if a hitter’s current BABIP is .400, you can expect that number to regress and his batting average to drop a bit over time. On the other hand, if a player’s batting average is only .200 but his BABIP is .100, you can expect the hitter’s batting average to rise in the future because he’s just been unlucky. BABIP is a great stat in determining why a player’s batting average is exceeding or not meeting expectations. Take the Texas Ranger second basemen, Rougned Odor. His batting average is currently extremely low at .197, but his BABIP is .211, which is very, very unlucky. His career BABIP is .285, so you can expect better results soon. I also own him, so Rougned, please start playing well. Pretty please.
Lineup Spot – A hitter’s current lineup spot is also important because a hitter batting higher in the lineup will have more opportunities to score runs, while a player batting fifth or sixth will have more opportunities for RBIs. If a player is batting seventh or eighth, you can expect his stat-getting opportunities to be very low. A good example for this right now is Texas Ranger outfielder, Delino DeShields. DeShields is a good bet to get thirty steals, but manager Jeff Banister has been hitting him leadoff or ninth in the lineup. Obviously, batting him leadoff increases his fantasy potential drastically (from ownable everywhere to droppable in most leagues). Fun fact: I own DeShields as well, and Banister’s indecision with this has been giving me headaches. Headaches, I tell you!
Minor League Stats – Minor league stats expose the truth about some players. For example, if a minor-league player hits a bunch of home runs but strikes out a lot, you can expect him to be a power hitter for low average in the major leagues. By the by – www.baseball-reference.com is the best site to find all this information above and below. A good example of a power hitter for low average – Texas Ranger third basemen Joey Gallo. Dude either hits bombs or doesn’t hit anything. He is currently tied for fifth in homeruns this season with 12, but is batting an awful .195.
News – This is where your commitment as a fantasy baseballer comes into play. You need to be following some players’ narratives throughout the season to get the leg up on when they’ll be useful for your fantasy team. For example, you should know when a player is supposed to be coming off injury or promoted from the minor leagues.
Maybe a player suddenly gets hot, and he attributes his strong performance to an adjustment he made in his swing – this tweak might’ve made him now worth picking up, as it’s a more concrete reason than just having a good week.
Maybe a player hit 20 homeruns in the second half of the season last year and got off to another hot start this year. Perhaps he figured something out. Follow the news, you never know what will happen. Also, www.rotoworld.com will become your best friend. And never a bad idea to take a flyer on rookies! Last season, uber prospect Washington National Trea Turner hit 13 homeruns and stole 33 bases in only 73 games! This vaulted him up to 59th on the ESPN Player Rater at the end of the season. Heading into 2017, Turner’s average draft pick (ADP) was 17.7 overall on ESPN.
LOOKING AT PITCHERS - IDENTIFYING SLEEPERS & BUSTS
the following applies to players on your free agent wire and to identifying sleepers for your draft.
When looking at pitchers, these are the things I pay most attention to, in no particular order:
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) – FIP is my favorite stat to look at when evaluating a pitcher. FIP is similar to ERA, but FIP focuses only on the outcomes a pitcher has the most control over – strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. It removes results based on luck or chance like BABIP!
This is important when evaluating a pitcher because a pitcher could have an ERA around 5.00 (very high), but his FIP could be 2.00 (very good). This means he’s just had some bad luck, and it should normalize in time.[2] It is also a good indicator of future performance (If you expect a pitcher’s numbers to regress over time, you probably don’t want to own him while that happens. Vice versa, if a pitcher’s FIP is lower than his current ERA, you can probably pick him up or trade for him at lower value.).
Strikeout per 9 Innings Pitched (K/9) – This is a great stat to look at because all fantasy teams can use strikeouts. And odds are if a pitcher has a high strikeout rate, they have a low FIP too, very good odds for predicting a future breakout! Some of my hopeful breakouts for 2017: Vince Velasquez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lance McCullers, & Michael Pineda. Why? Let’s look at just their ERAs, FIPs, and K/9 from 2016.
All very high strikeout rates, obviously. I believe these four will all be very good pitchers, and all except for Velasquez have gotten off to very strong starts. Come on, Vince, you’re making me look bad!
Walks/Hits Allowed Per Inning Pitched (WHIP) – This is also a good indicator for FIP (see how important FIP is?). A good WHIP is about 1.20 or lower. This means a pitcher is allowing very few baserunners (he doesn’t walk a lot of players; he doesn’t allow many hits; his BABIP is low). It will help your ratios, your ERA, your strikeouts, and general good fortune. If you want to see what a good WHIP looks like, just look at Clayton Kershaw’s entire career. To put how great Kershaw is in perspective, so far in 2017, he is 6-2 with a 2.43 ERA, 3.03 FIP, and 9.2 K/9, and it feels like he’s vastly underperforming (His FIP each year from 2014-16 were all under 2.00!).
News – Just like hitters, it’s important to be following why or how a pitcher is exceeding or not meeting expectations. Also, it’s very important to follow the closer carousel and who gets a starting job or not!
FANTASY TRADING
Now that you know what to look for in players, you can now try and trade for them! Trades in any sport make the game more exciting, and fantasy is no different. With trades, I’ll assume your league knows what they’re doing, so most trades will seem equal on paper. When trading, here are some things to pay attention to.
- Avoid listening to hype. Just because a player had an incredible week doesn’t automatically make this his new standard. Don’t overpay and don’t get swept up in the idea that this player will hit five homers every week.
- Buy low and sell high. This is the most popular cliché trading advice. And it’s true! Let’s take a look at Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story. In 2016, Story made history as a rookie by hitting 10 homeruns in his first 21 games. Pretty impressive, right? Now comes the hard decision as a lucky owner in this scenario: Is he this good? Or is he a classic sell high? He would go on to have a great rookie season, with 27 homeruns in just 97 games – but that’s all he would play, as he would have to undergo thumb surgery and prematurely end his season two thirds of the way through.
- Go with your gut. Have fun with trades. In all honesty, you really never know who will get the better side of the trade. Ideally, your trade benefits both sides. Is your team hitting way too many homers but your pitchers aren’t getting any saves? Trade a hitter for a closer. Bam. Easy, right (hint: no)?
- The All-Star Break is more important than you may think. Some hitters are notorious for starting off slow and playing well after the break. Know who these players are, so you can trade for them at the All-Star Break and reap the rewards later. It will take some time to figure out who these players are. An example is Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. For some reason, he’s close to unownable in the first half of the season. But post-break, he’s an MVP, as the weather gets hotter and balls travel farther.
- The All-Star Break is also make or break for pitchers. Buyer beware: be wary of trading for pitchers around this time. Many pitchers get tired as the season goes on, and their ERAs rise rapidly after the break. This is when you need to pick up the rookies who get called up in July, August and September, because their arms are relatively fresh and fueled by excitement-driven adrenaline.
ON SUPERSTITIONS & THE INTANGIBLES: THE LIFE OF A FANTASY BASEBALLER
Baseball is weird, lucky, and sometimes, indescribable. I think there are more superstitions, curses, and jinxes in baseball than any other sport.
The Red Sox had their 86 year-long “Curse of the Bambino.” The Chicago Cubs just broke their 108 year-long “Curse of the Billy Goat.” Hall of Famer Wade Boggs ate chicken before every game, believing he wouldn’t play well if he didn’t. Honus Wagner would change his bat after he got 100 hits with it. Nomar Garciaparra would readjust his gloves after every single pitch. Some hitters wouldn’t change their socks or underwear if they won, changing it only if they lost. Pitchers avoid stepping on the chalk baselines when walking off the mound. The Boston Red Sox outfielders huddle in center field after every win and perform a dance. This has become known as “Win, Dance, Repeat,” and is often a trending Twitter hashtag. Do superstitions impact fantasy? Maybe, maybe not, but either way, it’s another great aspect to the game.
In a game riddled with superstitions, it’s only natural for superstitions to transfer to fantasy as well. I have my own personal superstitions. One, I’m not allowed to own more than one Red Sox player at a time, for fear the team will start losing (it’s a poor time to believe this, as many Red Sox players are quite helpful to own). Two, I never own any Yankees if I can help it, simply because they’re the Yankees. Although I admit I wish I owned Aaron Judge this year.
There are other interesting intangible aspects to the game. Every year, now ex-ESPN Staff Writer Jayson Stark writes a column called “Strange, but True!” in which he detailed very random statistics and injuries that highlight some of the wacky, bizarre aspects of baseball, and just how truly in depth they can get.
As a newcomer to fantasy baseball, you’ll develop infatuations with certain players (Xander Bogaerts), and ineffable hate for others (Carlos Gonzalez). You’ll learn every team’s roster inside and out, major league and minor league. You’ll look at box scores for extremely boring games like the Twins vs. the Phillies. You’ll check Rotoworld every hour, and look at the waiver wire constantly. You’ll get better at trash talk, improve at constructing your championship squadron, and most of all, develop a new love for the game - all in the life of a fantasy baseballer.
Footnotes
1. The ESPN Player Rater is a system that attempts to rank the value of all players in fantasy baseball. One simple list that says who was the most valuable in terms of fantasy. For more information, go to http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=2897967.
2. FIP Warning: Some pitchers’ FIP never matches up with their ERA year after year, defying metrics and statistics. Toronto Blue Jay pitcher Marco Estrada is a great example of this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/estrama01.shtml. Another example is New York Yankee Michael Pineda, although so far in 2017, his FIP and ERA do match up well: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml
